Crazycajun,
I can not comment on whats out there at this time specifically, but I will say this. Weigh the number of CWI's against the construction, pipeline, bridge, refinery jobs, ect. and it should take away the appearance of a flooded market. I promise there are more than 23000 projects going on on a daily basis. Do not be discouraged. CWI's are in high demand, and until they stop welding things together, and customers stop caring about quality, it will stay that way.
jrw159 :-)
What it may actually have anything to do with is where the CWI cert is applied. O&G is slowing down and the specific wages for refinery inspectors, will likely go down as well, but that will be about it.
Digging out my crystal ball what I foresee as up and coming is the following:
Wind towers: The government and the industry is catching up to the quality needs for these items. What the (US) industry is lacking is efficiency to go with that quality.
Most operations in the states are producing no more than 5 towers a day. Why is that? 1) From what I've seen we have the welding gear available, but the trained welders are not to be found, and when they are found, there is not enough understanding of their value. 2)The means to form the plates is also lacking. The number of heavy duty rollers are severely limited in the states as many of them we once had have been sold overseas. Those people overseas are charging nearly as much for the same towers as we produce and getting away with it because the U.S. cannot compete with companies like vestas, etc. These companies produce 10+ towers a day on a slow day in one facility. Those same companies are also utilizing U.S. facilities to increase their production capacity as well, which further hampers and put's U.S. based producers at a disadvantage as it further limits experienced welders and available equipment. For a US company to be viable, they need to produce 5 towers a day minimum. ( with a few calls and some visits to the right people, a good salesmen could sell 2000 towers a year minimum if they are quality at near to 1 million apiece)
The upside is, to produce them as the tree huggers desire, the steel, the equipment, the welders and the inspectors will be needed. I am going to be very much surprised if we don't see D1.1 taking a leading role in the code these things are built to as well as states intervening and requiring central certs as these towers get closer and closer where people live and or going offshore. (AWS needs to start thinking of producing a standard for off shore power producing facilities. API rp 2x already references D1.1, why not a new code for that? hint hint)
Next:
Nuclear. New plants are going to require reams of structural inspectors. Especially if they are built anywhere near fault zones. There are specific code and legal requirements for inspectors that contractors and owners can't get around. Then there is the source inspection around the world. Nuclear has to happen, no matter how much the tree huggers scream. What a lot of people are not aware of is what happens when a plant is not allowed to have an uprate and or a life extension. There is only so long any Nuclear reactor can run due to radiation embrittlement. 20 percent of our power comes from nukes, so as a minimum, we will have to replace the aging plants plus 20 to keep the 20% level. Some say it's only going to be 9. My information says it's going to be 20 plus the replacements. Nuclears in particular are critical of a person's background, and therefore provides a good opportunity for CWI's who stays clear of a criminal record.
As an addenda to the nuclear; what NERC, EPRI and others in every report I read don't take into significant account is the additional draw on the grid when the next generation of electric cars hit the road. Those cars btw utilize far more aluminum and composites than the standard models of today. You're not going to smelt bauxite without reams of electricity.
Then as we've seen in the spendulus bill, the liberals out there want to increase the roll of mass transit in the form of bullet trains. Again another draw down on the grid. They can sell their BS some other place, the bottom line is, our grid, and our generation capacity is sorely lacking for what's coming. To get what they want, they will have to bite the nuclear bullet at least to the extent I've described.
I don't see hydro being any more than it is now, to many snails being protected by greenies, and they will have their measure of blood. I suspect this will be the bone thrown to them and the one given to hydroelectric workers.
I believe there will be a lot of cleaning up of fossil sites.
All the way around, the energy sector (in particular electricity) will be booming or we will all be screwed.
I suspect the number of CWI's out there is sorely lacking, and not only lacking, but it also has to be remembered that not all of those 23K CWI's are in America to begin with.
The real problem I see is, inspector fraud, and poor ethics. Many cases like that are simply overlooked as people don't want to stir the pot or be a rat. In my opinion, what the inspectors need is a Union, and not just a union, one that will actively seek out, and get rid of any bogus inspectors that they find. Fraud and poor ethics is a problem that affects us all. When you hear a CWI bragging about welding to the farm code and passing the CWI, they need to be called out. When one is found to be out right fraudulent, they need to be dealt with immediately. Think about this, that's your job, or another "qualified" CWI's job they are filling for a company that didn't bother checking them.
It's my opinion that if CWI's are not in demand, there is going to be more problems than not working.
/Edited for spelling errors.
Just to add one tiny note to this three star post.
Old grey beard CWI's are going to have to retire... Most (not all) CWI's are vets and senior craftspeople... This will provide more opportunity to those of us with only a few grey hairs.
So even with a systemic slow down.. There will be large turnover in both CWI's and Expert welders in the near and long term..
I went and looked in the mirror after your post. I am apparently starting to reflect the grey beard comment. Getting old sucks.
Lawrence,
I can sure relate to this. I am a CWI and up for 6 yar renewal in October of this year. I do not plan on being a CWI my whole life. Not that I will not hold the certification, but it is a stepping stone for me. SCWI next, maybe CWE, but definatly going to move up and on.
jrw159
Damn fine editorial Gerald. Your should be up for a Pulitzer for that one. Since I have just got my CWI I have been starting to worry about finding a job. Well not only a job but one that would pay well enough for me to not regret my endevor. Buyers' remose seems to be rampant these days.
I do say that your take on it has helped me relax a bit.
Gerald,
Very nice in depth reply. :-) You hit a good point with the comment about overseas work. I am curious as to an approximate number on how many are in what locations.
jrw159
Maybe when they fail, they REALLY fail.
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