I was speaking with a freind of mine recently about the future of the welding industry and the job market. My freind felt that the demand for welders would be on the decline for the next several years, largley due to NAFTA. I countered that with the baby-boomers leaving the business in large numbers and a lack of skilled workers to fill these vacancies that demand and therefore pay scale will increase. I haven't seen this discussed very much in this forum so I would like to hear what you guys think and why.
What skills do you think will be in demand and in what industries?
Just curious to see what you all think.
Beracah
Hello Beracah, I am located in the Portland, Ore., Vancouver, Wa. area and have attended a number of Metal Trades Consortium meetings that have been held in the past year. The people that are attending these meetings are from the Oregon governor's office, state labor board, local educators and trades training centers, union representatives, and thirty or more industry representatives. The topics that these folks are covering have to do with the future needs of the metals industry, meaning welders, machinists, pipefitters and steamfitters, electricians, the list goes on. All of these folks know that the future needs of the area will not be met under the current conditions. This group has projected labor needs to the tune of 35 to 40,000 job positions to be filled in the next 7 to 10 years. There is ample data available through many of the state and federal agencies to support this. Besides just looking to replaced an aging work force there are ample new positions that are going to need to be filled with the expansion and growth of the many new and current industries. The information that has been circulating in our area indicates that the average age of many of the journeymen in the various trade unions is around 57 to 59 years of age, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that there are going to be plenty of opportunities for jobs in the trades. A real basic statistic that would explain your thoughts on job opportunities and pay would be, of the jobs currently available, 20% of jobs available are for individuals with bachelors degrees and higher and 80% of the jobs will be in the trades and vocational areas. Of the people that are going to school and receiving training 80% are going for bachelors and higher and 20% are going for training and schooling in the trades and vocational areas. You can see that there are definitely going to be plenty of opportunities for people in the trades. With so many job opportunities and most likely a lack of people to fill them, the wages will be and have been climbing to attract those who are qualified and capable. We have certainly seen a substantial amount of work that has gone outside of the United States and we have also seen a number of folks that have come to the states to work and fill the jobs needs, that's another story. The basic attitudes of the parents and youth in our country needs to be educated a considerable amount, our future workforce has to be willing to put forth the effort and see the value of good hard work. There are far too many people in our society that aren't willing to give an honest days work for an honest days wages. I appologize for being windy on this topic but I could really go on and on about this and from many angles. Best regards, aevald
I think the topic is like throwing a rock into a pond. You get peaks and troughs that travel out from the disturbance, gradually getting smaller until another rock is thrown in. That's what I have seen anyway. The cycle is that some area of the country always seems to be booming while another part declines but there always seems to be at least some construction activity everywhere.
A lot of folks feel that globalization (sending work overeseas) is causing an economic decline, while others think the opposite is happening. I am not an economist so I can't say either way.
Where NAFTA has been with us for a while, I don't understand how that has affected the job market lately; but that is because I don't know and not because it has not.
Personally, I think there will continue to be a need for welders. I also think, as various trade organizations have said, that there will be a shortage of qualified tradespeople as we "baby-boomers" retire. That is because construction work is viewed as low on the scale of desirable jobs (along with cowboys and exotic dancers) so young people entering the work force are seeking more "glamorous" kinds of work.
Because of that there is more emphasis being placed on craft training, in all the trades, to make more training and better training available before we face the predicted crunch.
Some people think that machines and robots will replace the need for welders, but I think that could not be farther from the truth. Yes, welding processes and equipment are getting more and more sophisticated. However, most welding still involves melting metal to achieve fusion. Machines are not capable of the eye-hand coordination that humans have. I don't see machines as completely replacing people in the near future. I do think welding will become more technical than it is now, but there will always be a need for a stinger, TIG torch, or welding gun in a human hand.
It still takes tradespeople to build the power plants, factories, stores, schools, etc. that are necessary before people can sit down to enjoy their TVs and computers in comfortable homes.
Now all we have to do is work towards letting our young people that work in the trades can be satisfying, profitable, and most importantly, safe.
Chet Guilford
Here's a link to an exceptional article which takes a vision into the future of welding. While it may be a little bit dated it does look ahead for the next 14 years and beyond... My personal thoughts after 33 years in the industry is we have been through some tough times but with the retirement of the baby boomers and the advent of the "white collared majority" there will always be plenty of good paying work for highly skilled craftspeople. Note the words "highly skilled." Today's world and requirements are far, far different than when I first got my journeyman's card ~ a simple "stick welder" just isn't going to cut it in the future. The future welder (near future, not distant future) will need to be highly proficient in many different welding processes if they want to make a good living. Those who do not have the drive to master several processes will probably be relegated to "grunt" welding jobs... make sense? Here's that link! http://www.aws.org/research/vision.pdf
This is a good thing to talk about.
Lots of statistics out there back the outlook that the need for welders In the United States has been on the rise since President Clinton signed NAFTA into law, even with the movement of some manufacturing out of the country.
To keep more manufacturing in the U.S. I believe rather than tariffs being applied by government, some of our labor unions need to rethink (at least show more flexibility) their stance on two key issues. First is cross utilization of skilled craftspersons in the manufacturing sphere (IAM and UAW come first to mind). Second is the notion of exceedingly high salary and benefits to compensate unskilled labor. I think those two factors have had the greatest influence on outsourcing.
I agree that the future is bright for *highly skilled* craftsmen and welders. However, I have also observed expansion in manufacturing that works smart even when producing items that are not highly complex. A well run American job shop can out produce, and more importantly be more profitable, than any competitor around the world. There are plenty of statistics to back that notion up too.
The *crisis* of a skilled labor shortage is not some futuristic figment or crystal ball prediction; it's happening right now all over the U.S. The very existence of the AWS S.E.N.S.E program is a response to this need. The AWS Education/Educators committees represent a broad cross section of College and Trade School Educators, Welding Equipment Manufacturers and Employers from every part of the country. Educators cannot produce enough bodies to fill the job openings. Our biggest hurdle as educators is to graduate employees with the high degree of skill employers are demanding, and to cultivate/re-enculturate the seemingly lost work ethic of our fathers. Our consensus was to stop complaining about high school councilors who don't consider welding a noble profession, (I have in the past been a big whiner about this) and to do the work ourselves to demonstrate what a good living can be obtained by being a craftsperson.
It's a good time to be a professional welder!
Lawrence; I generally agree with most everything you say with one exception, that is your statement "A well run American job shop can out produce, and more importantly be more profitable, than any competitor around the world."
While I am a strong backer of "buy American" I have found that the increasing technical ability of some former third world nations, China most notably, will keep the USA on the downside of competition for quite some time. One can argue about governmental subsidizing til the cows come home, but as Americans, even working as smart as we possibly are able to, I think we've got a very, very steep road ahead.
Much of the past couple of decades have been predicated on "America's the best, at everything" which may have been true in the golden years (post-WWII) but today is a vastly different time and I feel personally that we, as Americans, have been clinging onto our greatness even to the point of not seeing the turtle passing the hare...
Sorry, really not meaning to get political but tomorrows welder will definately have to be something special and I definately agree too that our trade unions (where I got my start) need to better understand today's employment field.
Apologizing in advance if I've offended anyone!!!
A significant portion of welded components that our plant produces goes to Canada, Mexico, and overseas. I am a "generation-X" and many of the skilled welders we have are boomers which plan on retiring. I hope to see more young people get into welding. I think a shortage is on the way. Maybe I should learn to speak Chinese
Gentlemen,
Thank you for the responses. I am always amazed at the insight and diversity of thought in this forum.
Lawrence, I think I am going to throw in with you on this one when talked about a well-run American shop out producing anyone in the world. Yes, jon20013, I agree that the Chinese economy is emerging as a strong competitor but I would respectfully submit that is only their trade with the U.S. that has made it possible. Economic trade with us is the only difference between them and the old Soviet Union. Cut off all ties to China tomorrow and that system would fall flat on its face in six months. I believe that there is no system in the world that can compete with our free-market capitalism.
Please don't be apologetic for sharing your political opinions. I have rather strong views on political issues myself and I enjoy hearing other peoples opinions as well.
As for the future of the trade, I too am optomistic about the demand for weldersgoing forward. I believe academia has oversold the college degree while looking down on the trades. I am very interested to see how the culture as a whole will react to this "turning of the tables" so to speak. Will skilled trade people finally be treated with the same respect as white collar professionals? I have heard that in Europe, this is already true, that a good welder is held in the same regard as doctors, teachers, lawyers, etc. If there is anyone reading this in Europe, please feel free to weigh in.
Sorry to bloviate excessivley.
beracah;
I can't speak specifically about respect for craft in Europe, I have been there many times but never noticed this issue however, I can say many of the other developed nations I've been to is as you say. Crafts people are held in high regard and really thats one thing missing here in America.
If it weren't for the highly skilled craftspeople, a high percentage of us white collar wonders would be pounding the pavement wondering how to get a job with good knowledge but low skills. Fortunately for me, I understand that, and believe my crew would agree as I am treated with the same respect from them as I give them!
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