We must recognize that forging a solid 16 inches (400 millimeters) diameter shaft in its entirety and not just on the periphery, as is your case, is not an easy task.
16 inches is the diameter of a ship's propeller shaft, or a huge Diesel engine crankshaft or a 100 MW steam or gas turbine shaft. Few metalworking shops in the world, shipyards among them, are able to do that.
Sorry, I can't be of any help to you. What I suggest is that you make a search into the ASM site. ASM is the American Society for Metals. They may have some standard or book with the information you're looking for. Their site is: www.asminternational.org
Good luck.
Giovanni S. Crisi
Sao Paulo - Brazil
You should post this question to Patrick Nowak on forgemagic.com. He is a metalurgist at Scott Forge, they do large work.
My guess is You are right about the inadequate reduction, what diameter was the shaft cast to?